Time Asia's newest cover boy Manny Pacquiao takes on Puerto Rico's Miguel Cotto on Sunday (Saturday US time) in the aptly-titled pay per view, "Firepower," and to serve as the fight's primer, I will answer five of the most important questions surrounding their bout.
1. Can Pacquiao take Cotto's power?
No. Despite Manny's unbelievably gruelling training of having someone hit his body with a stick, Cotto's power is hard to overcome. Cotto's attack, which usually involves very punishing body blows (and even low blows), really can hurt welterweights, much more welterweights who came up in weight like Manny. His sterling record of 34 wins (27 by knockout) is littered with big welterweights, so Manny will feel the power of each of Cotto's vaunted body punches. If Cotto catches Manny with more than a few body blows, it could be a long night for Pacquiao. Now, before everyone panics and calls for my head, read on.
No. Every single opponent of Pacquiao had said that they had studied and figured out Manny's speed and quickness (both in foot movement and punching speed) before they succumb to it in the ring. Cotto has joined those ranks by claiming he can fight speed as proven by wins over Shane Mosley and Joshua Clottey. While those two are bordering on great as well, Pacquiao's speed is nowhere close to theirs. Manny's unworldly hand and foot speed is what truly makes him great, not his punching power as a large number of fans are wont to believe. The problem for Cotto is that he can prepare as much as he wants, but no sparring partner on this planet, much less in his camp, approximates "Pacman," so he has not prepared adequately for Manny's speed and quickness. While Cotto's powerful punch can knock people out, a barrage of "Pacman" punches, some of which Cotto might not even see, can knock him out too.
3. Will either fighter's training camp distractions prove fatal to their bid?
No. Manny's camp was littered with distractions, from the two super typhoons, to infighting between adviser Michael Koncz and trainer Alex Ariza, to Freddie Roach scoffing at Manny Villar's pandering to the, "Pambansang Kamao." All these, however, distracting, are par for the course for every "Pacman" camp. Expect Pacquiao to be ready for fight night as he himself recognizes the tremendous opportunity laid before him. Meanwhile, Cotto's camp which was a little busier than usual watching Cotto's weight, was rocked by former trainer (and Cotto's uncle) Evangelista Cotto, who slapped a lawsuit on the fighter, the culmination of years of infighting with the Cottos, Miguel Sr. and Jr. Just like Manny, though, expect Cotto to be ready for what is easily the biggest fight of his life. While he has expressed respect and admiration for Pacquiao, it is also important to remember that the Puerto Rican covets all the admiration, riches and glamour Pacquiao has earned.
Many boxing experts differ on their predictions, with some counting on Pacquiao's speed to win and some counting on Cotto's power. My fearless forecast? Pacquiao will win in either late round knockout or unanimous decision. Manny will be well wary of Cotto's power and he will be highly motivated to frustrate Cotto and take away his strength advantage. The last thing Pacquiao needs is to lose by knockout, expect Manny to do everything in his power to avoid it. Manny doing everything in his power usually means lights out for his opponent.
5. What will be next for both fighters?
Considering the fight goes as I predicted, expect both fighters to still be in the fight game. A loss diminishes Cotto's marketability and charisma, but it won't be too bad that Bob Arum can't find a fight for him. A rematch against Antonio Maragarito is being floated around and expect Shane Mosley to come knocking if he sees Cotto has slowed down. For Manny, a showdown with Floyd Mayweather would be golden, but don't wait with bated breath. Mayweather will angle for more money and slow down negotiations and don't be surprised to see Manny face Juan Manuel Marquez instead. A third fight in that rivalry would be a good pay per view and with both fighters aching to defeat the other convincingly, should be a slam-bang affair.
Next Week: I will do a checklist of these five questions to see where I went right and wrong.
photos courtesy of Getty Images and the AP
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