Betting on Gilas

     Like a young lover spurned by the object of affection, Lito Alvarez, governor of the Burger King Whoppers of the Philippine Basketball Association, scoffed at Japeth Aguilar's decision to play for Smart GIlas.  Then, he went on jilted lover's attack, saying maybe the PBA should continue fielding teams for international competitions, instead of Smart Gilas.  I think this is where Alvarez has broken from reality because unlike him, I believe Smart Gilas will do better than a PBA All Star Team in international competitions.  

      Now, before people start to make preparations to bring me to the looney bin, I do have my points.  Without going into the X's and O's and player by player match ups, I think Gilas will outperform the PBA selections because of three factors.

Certain Tendencies

     The PBA has done its best to change some of its rules (closer 3-point line among others), but it rema

ins a professional league.  That means playing against the same teams while being officiated by the same referees.  It also means playing only the same afternoon and evening schedules.  This means that opponents will play off your tendencies, while referees will call based on certain reputations.  Pro players come into the game performing certain moves that almost always get calls, defend players and avoid fouls  based on their reps, while they can fake off opponents by feigning moves they are known for.  Furthermore, players' bodies all have developed an internal body clocks attuned to playing their best during the late afternoons and late evenings.  This results in players like Kerby Raymundo and Jay Jay Helterbrand who were largely ineffective because they couldn't get the calls and the free throws they needed to get their games going.  Pro players have a difficult time scoring of drives to the basket since they have developed a tendency to wait for calls that would come in a pro game, but never in a FIBA Tournament.

     Meanwhile, GIlas players will spend most of their days training on a system developed by Rajko Toroman, whose system fits the international amateur game.  While Toroman is by no means the greatest coach on earth, his system is still a lot closer to the international game than any of the PBA's greatest coaches.  This means that players will keep playing in

ternational ball, complete with constant movement, outside shooting, and zone defense.  The only tendency they will develop is the tendency to play international amateur style of baskeball.

Shaping Things Up

     PBA players are supposedly in great shape, but "game shape" in international ball is way different from "game shape" in pro ball.  Pro games last 48 minutes, but it's filled with longer breaks, mandatory commercial timeouts, more timeouts and more slow down play.  International games give teams just 5 timeouts and even the halftime break is shorter.  This is why all our PBA teams from Norman Black's 1994 team to Yeng Guiao's 2009 team all shoot poorly.  The players are all out of breath and tire easily.  In international play, most teams play with constant player and ball movement, giving players no room to "pace" themselves to play 48 minutes.  Playing the pro style doesn't prepare the pros to keep up with the pace of the international style of play.

     While Gilas will play as a guest team in the PBA, they will also participate in several c

amps, exhibitions and tournaments with FIBA rules and international amateur opponents.  This will ensure that Gilas players will be physically prepared to run and defend with only five timeouts and a shorter halftime to rest with.

It's Only Natural

      Although naturalizing an American by no means ensures you make a difference, naturalizing C.J. Giles does.  Giles, a former L.A. Laker, is 6'11" with great rebounding skills and a competent low post game.  This is by far more than any of the PBA's top big men can provide.  The soo

n-to-be naturalized player has athleticism that none of our local big men can provide.  Perhaps more importantly, though, is Giles' will.  Even if he is not a natural born Filipino, expect him to give his all in every game.  This was clearly seen when he played for GIlas in the FIBA Asia Champions Cup.  Giles, who was injured in a previous game, begged Coach Toroman to put him in the next game, despite being told he was excused.  That kind of dedication on an athletic 6'11" player is quite a game changer, and more importantly it's a game changer the PBA doesn't have.

     On paper, it sounds silly that a team with Chris Tiu, Japeth Aguilar and Dylan Ababou could beat a team with the likes of WIllie Miller, Asi Taulava and James Yap and maybe it is, in a professional PBA game.  In the international game, though, my money (and Manny Pangilinan's) is on Smart Gilas and its bunch if amateurs. 

photos courtesy of delfinek.hu and kansas.scout.com

The Hulabaloo Over Japeth

     By now, every basketball die hard in the Philippines has heard of the "Japeth Aguilar Controversy."  Aguilar, the Philippine Basketball Association's (PBA) first overall pick of this year, has announced his decision to not sign with the Burger King Whoppers in favor of playing for the Smart Gilas Philippine National Basketball Team.  This has led the Whoppers, headed by its governor, Lito Alvarez, to lead a call for Aguilar's lifetime ban from the PBA, claiming that Aguilar is, "making a mockery," of Asia's oldest professional basketball league.  Now, fingers are being pointed, and factions are beginning to form.  Who really is to blame here and who can resolve this matter?  Well, for all the finger pointing going on, I think let's all be honest and point to the only man who could've started this and the only one who can resolve it.  Manny V. Pangilinan.

Is Aguilar Evil?

     Aguilar's sudden change of heart is what gets Alvarez' goat and I have to say, it is extremely peculiar for a first overall pick to suddenly decide not to play.  After all, being the overall top pick presumes one will get the maximum salary (over PhP 8 million, three years) and possible endorsement deals.  This peculiarity has the Whoppers calling Aguilar a turncoat, essentially. The question is, though, "Is Japeth that evil?"  

     My gut says no.  Barring any possible rift with Whoppers (and then National Team Coach) Yeng Guiao (Aguilar has denied any rift), I see only one other scenario which would embolden Aguilar to change his mind.  Samahang Baskeball ng Pilipinas (SBP) President Manny Pangilinan is the creator and benefactor of the Smart GIlas team, and he has secured funds to pay all Gilas players salaries which would rival what the players could possibly receive as PBA rookies.  It's entirely likely that Pangilinan has offered Aguilar the same amount (or more likely m

ore) he would receive from the Whoppers.  Along with that, playing with Gilas assures Aguilar of not only star status, but also international exposure as Gilas will officially represent the Philippines in all international competitions, including the FIba Asia and the Asian Games.  For an American College player who still entertains thoughts of playing in the NBA, that kind of exposure is priceless.  

     Think this is all too much of a conspiracy theory?  Consider this.  Aside from being Gilas' benefactor and SBP President, Pangilinan also owns a PBA franchise (Talk and Text Tropang Texters) and is a part owner of the Burger King Whoppers.  Yup. The same team that Aguilar is said to be shafting.  Now, if this was all Aguilar and his agent's (Ronnie "Shoulder Rubber" Nathanielsz) doing, then one would think Pangilinan would be up

 in arms over two of his groups in conflict.  Instead, it has been several days and the man known as MVP has said nothing.

     So is Aguilar evil?  I think Aguilar was presented with enticing options, and he chose the one that enticed him the most.  While he did declare for the draft, he never signed a contract, so he never reneged on any deal.  Besides, it's not like he reneged on the Whoppers to play for another PBA team.  He chose to play for the country and the national team.  How's that for a good reason?

To Ban or Not to Ban

     Let's get real here.  Banning Aguilar forever is a bad bad idea for the PBA.  A 6 foot 11 baller with mad hops and excellent defensive timing, Aguilar is the Philippines' best big man of the future.  Depriving him of a PBA career deprives the PBA of a superstar who will put s

eats in the arena.  Meanwhile, trying to get the ban itself will prove to be a tough task.  The San Miguel-owned teams (San Miguel Beermen, Barangay Ginebra Kings and Purefoods Giants) could care less about the Whoppers, and having Aguilar out for three years means  he will be open to negotiations for other teams.  SMC would never pass on the chance to not only weaken the Whoppers but also have the

chance to snatch Aguilar away.  Meanwhile, I cannot imagine Talk and Text, a Pangilinan owned team, voting to ban Aguilar for joining a Pangilinan sponsored team.  That's four potential votes lost already and given that the other teams would also love the chance to snatch Aguilar for themselves, Alvarez has to face facts that he is screwed.

     Let's be clear here.  Aguilar is no saint.  While he claims his intention has always been to play for the national team, he could have done everyone a favor by not signing up for the draft.  In any case, though, he has broken no rules and as a FIlipino basketball fan, imagining him teaming up with C.J. GIles, Chris Tiu, Andy Barroca and Dylan Ababou in a team coached by Rajko Toroman excites the heck out of me.  I can wait for Aguilar's PBA debut for three years if it means we go deeper in future international tournaments.  As for the PBA's integrity?  Oh please. The league has been around for over thirty years.  They'll live.

photos courtesy of forums.interbasket.net and yumipitz.blogspot.com

Liking the National Team

     With the Philippine National Basketball Team coached by Yeng Guiao having played a total of five tune up games already, I thought it was high time to assess this team.  I watched all five of their games, including their series against Australia Hoopdreams, which I caught at Araneta Coliseum's courtside.  

The Good Stuff

Speed - Man, this team is fast and quick.  It looks like Coach Guiao is looking to run opponents to the ground to make up our size disadvantage, and he certainly picked up the right tools.  Players 1 through 12 can all run, and if they keep practicing together, they can form a formidable fastbreak attack.

Athleticism - Speed is not all we need to make up our lack of size and athleticism is that missing link.  With players like Gabe Norwood, Arwind Santos and Kelly Williams, our team has long-limbed, high-leaping bodies that when motivated properly, will be apt to tap loose balls, gather steals, grab rebounds and run.  

Camaraderie - This early, the team seems to have good camaraderie, especially in terms of the players liking each other.  Based on what I've seen during games and even during time outs and lulls, the players do genuinely like playing with each other.

Jared Dillinger - Among all the players, I am most surprised and pleased with Jared DIllinger.  The 6'4" guard has shown tremendous heart and passion, and I am surprised at his quickness, especially on his drives to the basket.  While I thought he might be the first player cut, he looks to be a more complete player than most as he can make long jumpers, drive the ball to the basket, bring the ball down court as a point and defend players from the 1, 2 and 3 positions.  I really wouldn't mind seeing him start for our team.

The Bad Stuff

Tentativeness - This has been, in my opinion, the disease that infects all our pro player-enforced national teams.  When all these unselfish superstars play together, they play like an All Star team, preferring to keep passing and passing, consciously avoiding being a "selfish" player that takes all the shots.  This disease actually makes our teams, including this one, ineffective in the half court game, with everyone passing and passing until the shot clock begins to run out and we are forced into a bad shot.  We would be best served to have a couple of players be the designated "go-to-guys" for half court plays.  Jay Jay Helterbrand, James Yap or a focused Willie Miller would be good candidates for this job.

In Between Game or lack thereof - While our players can all make threes (except maybe Asi Taulava) and finish strong at the rim, it seems none of our players are comfortable taking in between shots.  I know that most teams play zone defense, but having our players take (and make) pull up jumpers could help free up the lane for future incursions or post up plays.

James Yap - My goodness.  Has celebrity gone to his head or is he just going through a shooting slump?  After his first game against the Australians, Yap has been relatively bad, considering the reason why he is on the team is because he is supposedly our premiere three point shooter.  He has been missing consistently, even on open looks and if he can't make those, maybe he should consider playing defense.  And yes James, playing "matador" defense, where you look like a Spanish bullfighter is not playing defense.  If he keeps missing and not break out of his slump, would it be too late to ask Don Don Hontiveros to join the team?

     Overall, the National Basketball Team is on the right track and I think they will look even better with more practices under their belt.  Building a running team will take time as the players need to learn the little habits of their teammates so that they will run the fastbreak like they were a team that has been playing forever.  When the players get the hang of each other, though, Asia better watch out. 

Two Cents for Coach Yeng

     Coach Yeng Guiao of the Red Bull Barakos has now been named as the Head Coach of the Men's National Basketball Team of the Philippines.  In line with Coach Yeng's Maverick style, he has already ditched the try outs and he said he would just name the team/pool and then start practicing.  Being a meddler, I decided to give my two cents worth of advice, whether he wants it or not.

     Keeping in mind that this team is only being formed for the FIBA Asia Tournament in 2009, I see no need to form a team with players filled with "potential."  The team should be filled with players who will be good in 2009.  I picked my team with the traditional 2 players per position plus two extra players and here they are by position, and I picked as if only PBA players could be picked.

Center - In amateur games, the center is mostly relied on to rebound and defend, not really pound the ball inside.  The SBP plans to get a naturalized center to play for us, so if that were the case, these choices would be scrapped.

Starter: Pauliasi Taulava (Coca Cola Tigers) - Asi is still the best "big" we have, even at age 34. He seems to be in shape for this season, so in another season he will still probably be the best.  At 6'9" and over 270 lbs, he will provide the bulk and size to defend the paint and rebound.  More importantly, he checks his ego at the door.  He never pouts if he doesn't get his shots.

Reliever: Michael Pennisi (San Miguel Beermen) - Mic is another big bodied and tough 6'9" center and he does possess an outside shot that can help draw out the defense.  More importantly, he is our resident "bad guy," an enforcer that isn't afraid to get tough with the opponents.  We need toughness to intimidate opponents and Mic is what the doctor ordered.

Power Forward - Power forwards in recent amateur tournaments have morphed into tall, athletic players that can play both outside and inside.  Big bruisers like Karl Malone type players are no longer in style.

Starter: Kelly Williams (Sta. Lucia Prime Properties) - The PBA Most Valuable Player is just that, valuable.  6'6" and freakishly athletic, he will contribute on both defensive and offensive rebounding and he can defend both in the post and outside.  It doesn't hurt that he can shoot too.

Reliever: Jean Marc Pingris (San Miguel Beermen) - While Pingris' outside shooting can be described as spotty at best, he has a tremendous nose for the ball that helps him get to every rebound and loose ball available.  While he is a mere 6'4", his athleticism and unusually long arms more than make up for that.

Small Forward - Small forwards will need to be able to able the post in the zone defense, and they may also be asked to defend outside.  Outside shooting will be key as well as they may be the ones left open in the outside most of the time.

Starter: James Yap (Purefoods TJ Giants) - Another former MVP, Yap was not given a chance in the previous national team, but he is deadly from the outside and lately, he has developed some deceptively quick slashing moves.  Meanwhile, he should be athletic and built enough to play down low on defense.   

Reliever: Arwind Santos (Air 21 Express) - The jack of all trades is an excellent small forward as well.  While being reed-thin, he has the uncanny ability to get to a lot of loose balls and defend anyone from point guard to small forward.  His athleticism and long arms are probably the reasons why.  On offense, he has developed a great outside shot and he is also a great offensive rebounder.

Shooting Guards - Well, they have to be able to shoot, but they need to be able to slash through the defense or run downcourt for a fast break play.  Most importantly, they need to be unaffected by playing against usually bigger and longer defenders.

Cyrus Baguio - "Skyrus" has really developed into a prime time player last year and while man still doubt his abilities, they really shouldn't.  His slashing and high-flying offense has now been augmented by his suddenly-reliable three point shot.  Besides, he is already familiar with Coach Yeng's style so that is a plus.  Furthermore, he seems a good locker room presence and he can bring a team together, as evidenced by the South All Stars horrific but funny dance number during the PBA's All Star Game.

Reliever: Willie Miller (Alaska Aces) - The thriller is way too unpredictable for some coaches' tastes, but he fits the bill actually.  He does have a solid outside shot and he can certainly slash through the defense.  As long as he is used in spurts, he will prove to be an effective player in his position.

Point Guard - There is no position as important as PGs will b the coach on the court, directing the plays.  Adding PGs with outside shots and slashing abilities will make the offense even more potent so it would be a good idea to get players that fit the bill.

Starter: Jimmy Alapag - One of the previous national team's brightest stars, Jimmy can control the offense and play both slow down and sped up ball.  His outside shot is pretty great and he can take the ball to the hole despite his diminutive size.  He just needs to stop taking pull up threes, that's all.

Reliever: Anthony Helterbrand - The Fiesta Cup's best player, Jay Jay is also excellent at the PG position.  Previous knocks of him being a shooting guard and not a point are now unfounded as he proved last conference.  He can pass, he can shoot and he definitely can slash to the basket.  His in between game (medium range jumpers and pull ups), will be very effective in the amateur game.

Two extra slots - With all five positions filled, the two extra slots should be given to players that can play multiple positions, plug in the holes, so to speak.  

Slot 1 - Gabriel Norwood (Rain or Shine Paintmasters) - Gabe, with his height and athletic ability, would be able to play four positions, and he seems willing and able to do it.  His ability to play the point makes him a valuable third guard and he would be most effective at shooting guard.  His outside shooting is not as reliable as I would want, but a year in the PBA should help things along.

Slot 2 - Ranidel de Ocampo (Air 21 Express) - Ranidel is another player that can play multiple positions, from SF to Center.  He has a dizzying array of post moves and his outside shot is very reliable as well.  Besides, he and his side burns provide the team with another tough guy to enforce some intimidation.

     With this line up, Coach Yeng will have the quick, athletic team that plays tough defense and shoots from the outside.  With all the long armed and high leaping players, he can put on a stifling pressure defense (ala La Salle) and go for easy hoops by forcing turnovers.  The team should also be able to play great half court offense with its wide array of shooters.  Meawhile, half court defense won't be a problem as well, what with all the tough guys in there.

     So what about it Coach Yeng? You can thank me next time.