Betting on Gilas

     Like a young lover spurned by the object of affection, Lito Alvarez, governor of the Burger King Whoppers of the Philippine Basketball Association, scoffed at Japeth Aguilar's decision to play for Smart GIlas.  Then, he went on jilted lover's attack, saying maybe the PBA should continue fielding teams for international competitions, instead of Smart Gilas.  I think this is where Alvarez has broken from reality because unlike him, I believe Smart Gilas will do better than a PBA All Star Team in international competitions.  

      Now, before people start to make preparations to bring me to the looney bin, I do have my points.  Without going into the X's and O's and player by player match ups, I think Gilas will outperform the PBA selections because of three factors.

Certain Tendencies

     The PBA has done its best to change some of its rules (closer 3-point line among others), but it rema

ins a professional league.  That means playing against the same teams while being officiated by the same referees.  It also means playing only the same afternoon and evening schedules.  This means that opponents will play off your tendencies, while referees will call based on certain reputations.  Pro players come into the game performing certain moves that almost always get calls, defend players and avoid fouls  based on their reps, while they can fake off opponents by feigning moves they are known for.  Furthermore, players' bodies all have developed an internal body clocks attuned to playing their best during the late afternoons and late evenings.  This results in players like Kerby Raymundo and Jay Jay Helterbrand who were largely ineffective because they couldn't get the calls and the free throws they needed to get their games going.  Pro players have a difficult time scoring of drives to the basket since they have developed a tendency to wait for calls that would come in a pro game, but never in a FIBA Tournament.

     Meanwhile, GIlas players will spend most of their days training on a system developed by Rajko Toroman, whose system fits the international amateur game.  While Toroman is by no means the greatest coach on earth, his system is still a lot closer to the international game than any of the PBA's greatest coaches.  This means that players will keep playing in

ternational ball, complete with constant movement, outside shooting, and zone defense.  The only tendency they will develop is the tendency to play international amateur style of baskeball.

Shaping Things Up

     PBA players are supposedly in great shape, but "game shape" in international ball is way different from "game shape" in pro ball.  Pro games last 48 minutes, but it's filled with longer breaks, mandatory commercial timeouts, more timeouts and more slow down play.  International games give teams just 5 timeouts and even the halftime break is shorter.  This is why all our PBA teams from Norman Black's 1994 team to Yeng Guiao's 2009 team all shoot poorly.  The players are all out of breath and tire easily.  In international play, most teams play with constant player and ball movement, giving players no room to "pace" themselves to play 48 minutes.  Playing the pro style doesn't prepare the pros to keep up with the pace of the international style of play.

     While Gilas will play as a guest team in the PBA, they will also participate in several c

amps, exhibitions and tournaments with FIBA rules and international amateur opponents.  This will ensure that Gilas players will be physically prepared to run and defend with only five timeouts and a shorter halftime to rest with.

It's Only Natural

      Although naturalizing an American by no means ensures you make a difference, naturalizing C.J. Giles does.  Giles, a former L.A. Laker, is 6'11" with great rebounding skills and a competent low post game.  This is by far more than any of the PBA's top big men can provide.  The soo

n-to-be naturalized player has athleticism that none of our local big men can provide.  Perhaps more importantly, though, is Giles' will.  Even if he is not a natural born Filipino, expect him to give his all in every game.  This was clearly seen when he played for GIlas in the FIBA Asia Champions Cup.  Giles, who was injured in a previous game, begged Coach Toroman to put him in the next game, despite being told he was excused.  That kind of dedication on an athletic 6'11" player is quite a game changer, and more importantly it's a game changer the PBA doesn't have.

     On paper, it sounds silly that a team with Chris Tiu, Japeth Aguilar and Dylan Ababou could beat a team with the likes of WIllie Miller, Asi Taulava and James Yap and maybe it is, in a professional PBA game.  In the international game, though, my money (and Manny Pangilinan's) is on Smart Gilas and its bunch if amateurs. 

photos courtesy of delfinek.hu and kansas.scout.com