Fifty Peso Previews NBA 2011-12: Southwest Division

Dallas Mavericks

Major Additions: Lamar Odom, Vince Carter
Major Subtractions: Tyson Chandler, Caron Butler

     The Mavericks couldn't have picked a worse way to begin their title defense by enduring a lockout.  Losing a vital defensive cog in Tyson Chandler, playing veterans in a compacted schedule and incorporating two new key players has left them in disarray.  While the Mavericks have seemed to find some footing, the real key for this team is to survive the regular season and redevelop their camaraderie to make another run at the title.  On paper, the task seems impossible, but then again that was what everyone said last year before Dirk Nowitzki just Dirk Nowitzki'd everyone.

Fearless Forecast: At least 2nd round of the playoffs

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The World is Alright

     When you're a kid, one of the lessons ingrained in your head is one about hard work and perseverance.  "You have to work hard, keep trying and never give up!" so the lesson goes. It sounds simple enough and it's a noble one.  Yet, the world in its modern age, has become cutthroat; overcome with an obsession for results,records, and achievements, but never about the hard work.  It brought in desperation and greed morphing the lesson into a horrible mantra. "Be practical.  You have to find the easiest solution to get what you want."  That's why the world, as we know it, sucks most of the time. That's why we don't know what to tell children when we try to convince them that the world is alright.

     Dirk Nowitzki entered the NBA full of dreams and promise.  A talented, other-wordly shooter in a seven foot body, the German was a phenom in waiting.  He became a superstar, a franchise player and soon a city's dream of a first NBA title would fall on his shoulders.  He would fail.  Going up 2-0 in the 2006 NBA Finals against Miami, Nowitzki and his Mavericks stood on the cusp of fulfilling Dallas' dreams to NBA glory, but a monumental collapse led to a Miami title that year.  The loss was tough on the Mavs and Dirk, beginning a string of playoff failures in the years that followed.  Brickbats came hard and they came fast. Nowitzki, the phenom, was branded as a "soft player," "choker," and one who didn't possess the needed leadership skills needed to win a title.  He was used as the personification of the European stereo type, skilled players who couldn't take physicality.  

     This year was no different.  Former NBA pro Chris Webber called Nowitzki out for not being tough enough. Dwayne Wade and Lebron James questioned the factuality of Nowitzki's broken finger and scoffed at his 107 degree fever in game 5 of the NBA Finals.  

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My Favorite Mistake

     In today's society, it seems more premium is placed on noting people's mistakes.  In today's NBA, everyone is waiting constantly for the next team with the next failed experiment.  The problem with this, though, is some mistakes turn out to be delayed strokes of genius.  Just take a look at the final four teams in this year's NBA playoffs.


Senior Moment

     It's amazing how quiet the Dallas Mavericks have been this year.  Even outspoken owner Mark Cuban has been a good little boy.  Perhaps, they long knew what others are only discovering now.  After yet another playoff flameout last year, everyone wanted the Mavs to blow up the veteran line up and rebuild.  They didn't heed the calls and kept the team intact, hoping another year together would see the development of the team.  Many were quick to call that a mistake, yet here they are, in the Western Conference finals after demolishing the defending champions the Los Angeles Lakers.  The extra year together has seen the development of JJ Barea, the resurgence of Shawn Marion and the full maturation of Dirk Nowitzki as a franchise player. With home court advantage against the Thunder, keeping the team intact may make GM Donnie Nelson a legendary executive.


Trade OK'd

      The Oklahoma City Thunder were the envy of the league with it's financial flexibility and very young roster of great players with great attitudes.  Everyone kept talking of the future and how the Thunder would be kings then.  The future couldn't come soon enough, though as GM Sam Presti pulled the trigger on a deal sending Jeff Green and Nenad Krystic to the Boston Celtics for Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson.  He then proceeded to sign Perkins to a long term deal.  Both actions drew wagging fingers from doubters, but they were silenced soon enough.  Perkins, while not putting up great numbers, has been a great locker room presence for the young Thunder, especially during their losses.  Meanwhile, Green's departure opened the door for James Harden and Serge Ibaka to shine, with both players piling up career numbers almost immediately after the trade.  If that big mid season trade was a mistake, more team should make mistakes as the Thunder are a series away from the NBA finals.


Heat Check

      Of course, the biggest mistake this season was Lebron James publicly spurning his hometown Cleveland Cavaliers for the Miami Heat on national TV.  The Heat haters, though, pointed to a different one in castigating the Heat.  The acquisition of the "Big Three" of James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh may have been a coup, but others pointed out that that left the Heat thin in the support department, especially up front.  People said it was a mistake to load up on superstars and that the lack of help will tell on the Heat in the playoffs.  Now, though, critics are slowly biting their tongue.  The Heat have flourished in the playoffs, not just because Wade and James have learned to play off one another, but also Coach Erik Spoelstra has finally gotten though on his team and have them playing choking defense.  While Lebron's PR choices continue to be errors, forming the superstar trio with Bosh and Wade seems to be a good "decision."


Bullish Run

     In the off season, the Bulls were in great shape.  A promising young team, a new defensive-minded head coach and lots of money to get Dwayne Wade, Lebron James or Chris Bosh (or two of three).  Then, amid the pandering and ego stroking of the superstars, the Bulls' stars Derrick Rose and Joachim Noah, made it clear that they could care less if any of the three stars joined them.  People were horrified as their statements meant none of the three would join them.  It was a mistake, they said, as the Bulls were at least two years away from being great.  Fast forward to the playoffs and the Bulls have home court advantage, the league Most Valuable Player in Rose and a vaunted, unforgiving defense.  Rose has become the superstar people thought the Bulls needed to get in the off season, and the supposed weak line up has become one of the NBA's deepest teams.  Now, the people are talking about how the Heat can compete with the Bulls, and not the other way around. 


     
     With my meager 50% success rate in playoff series predictions this year, I won't be blogging any previews.  What I will be doing is checking out which "mistake" turns out to be the most genius of strokes.

photos courtesy of Getty Images

The Long Kiss Goodnight

     In just two weeks, the sporting world has witnessed what seems to be the departure of three hall of famers.  While all three have greatness as their common trait, the manner in which they departed their sport varies tremendously.  The differences, though, highlight the toughest question every competitive athlete must answer, "Is it time to hang them up?"


Clock Strikes 11

     Heading into the 2011 NBA Playoffs, the Lakers seemed to be in trouble.  Their game lacked the usual flow, execution and swagger that were signatures of Phil Jackson-coached teams.  Still, it surprised everyone as a team, led by Kobe Bryant, the NBA's most clutch player since Michael Jordan and coached by 11 time champion coach Jackson, struggled through a weak New Orleans Hornets team and then proceeded to be dismissed by the Dallas Mavericks in a sweep.  While losing is part of every team, even the great ones, this final stand for Jackson was sad at best.  The winningest coach of the playoffs couldn't muster up any supreme effort from his players and worst of all, he couldn't keep his players' attitudes and frustrations in check, failing to stop both Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum from hurting the Mavericks' players with blatant dirty plays.  As many highs as Jackson attained in his career, that exit was just plain horrible.


Race to (B)itch Mountain 

      When Floyd Mayweather cooked up yet another excuse not to face Manny Pacquiao, "Sugar" Shane Mosley stepped up to challenge the Filipino champ.  While many were quick to scoff at Mosley and his advancing age, I defended their fight because Mosley would at least man up and trade punches with Pacman; or so I thought.  After testing Pacquiao's power and getting knocked down in round 3, Mosley did the unthinkable. The man who beat the great Oscar de la Hoya (twice) and the man who racked up over 30 KO's to his name ran, and I mean RAN. Mosley spent rounds 4 through 12 backpedalling, trying his best to get some cardio while avoiding getting hit.  So cowardly was his tactics that Pacquiao literally stopped and asked him to punch in the middle of the fight. This shameful loss may be only one loss in Mosley's storied career and he himself is unsure if his career is over, but as exits go, this is probably the worst.  A tremendous career littered with supreme talent and transcendent achievements will forever be tarnished by a tragic race around the ring.


It's Only Natural

      Ask anyone and they'll tell you that sports are for the young, but apparently, Randy Couture didn't get the memo.  At well over 40, Couture was still fighting at a high level and even racked up yet another three-fight winning streak.  Couture, though, was already contemplating retirement and was looking for one last big fight.  With a hall of fame career and five titles to his name, it made a lot of sense for Randy to seek out an easy fight to put a cherry on top of his sundae of a career.  Instead, he asked for a match against Lyoto Machida, the UFC's most elusive fighter and resident karate kid.  Machida posed plenty of problems for Couture, but he wanted a true challenge as his last fight, just like every other fight he fought in his long career.  While Couture was eventually knocked out (via a tremendous "Crane Kick" by Machida), he exited with his head held high (albeit lacking a tooth) because he went out the same way he came in; fighting at a tremendously high level.  Just like Japan's samurais before, Couture went out swinging and he (and we as fans) couldn't ask for a better end.



     The competitive nature of athletes makes it difficult to determine when it is time to stop and retire.  Oftentimes, we see athletes play one more game or fight one more match than they should've.  Here's a hint for them, though.  They make a conscious effort to end things on their terms, fighting/playing as hard as they can and then exit.  If they're going to be unable to maintain a high level like Phil Jackson or embarrass themselves like Shane Mosley, they might as well hang them up early.

Fifty Peso Previews: 2011 NBA Playoffs (2nd Round)

     The 1st round of the 2011 NBA Playoffs ended early as there were no seven game series, but it was quite an interesting one.  The bad news was several teams didn't do their part and put my forecast percentage at an all time low of 50%. (Damn you Orlando and Portland!!!)  Not to be deterred, here are my forecasts for the 2nd round which kicks off tomorrow.


Chicago Bulls (1) vs Atlanta Hawks (5)

     The Hawks are brimming with confidence right now, but they are lacking as Kirk Hinrich is doubtful for the entire series.  Given that their choices at guard aren't exactly full of lock down defenders, one of the 2 heavy scoring guards (Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford) will have to guard Bulls' superstar Derrick Rose. That does not bode well for the Hawks at all.  Meanwhile the Bulls have their own issues with Carlos Boozer suffering turf toe (I know, right?).  The Bulls played awful defense (by their standards) in the 1st round but expect them to regain their defensive intensity and give the Hawks plenty of trouble.


Fearless Forecast: Bulls take series (4 games to 2)


Boston Celtics (3) vs Miami Heat (2)

      It's finally here. The series everyone has been waiting for is in the 2nd round as I predicted.  The Heat (esp. Lebron) need this win to disprove the growing notion that he can't win.  The problem is he needs Wade to carry the team offensively and Wade has struggled mightily against the Celtics.  All three Heat superstars have to guard one of the Celtics' offensive greats, and that kind of pressure defensively will mean a lot of trouble once they try to play offense. Much has been made about Shaq's absence, but the Heat aren't big either and Glen Davis, Jermaine O'Neal and Nenad Krystic may be more than enough in the middle.


Fearless Forecast: Celtics take series (4 games to 2)


Oklahoma City Thunder (4) vs Memphis Grizzlies (8)

      The battle of teams that were supposed to be good only in the future promises to be an intriguing one.  Each team's strengths offensively are matched by their opponent's defensive strength.  The outside operators of the Thunder (Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant) will find their defensive matches in Tony Allen and Shane Battier, while the Grizz's dominant big men (Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol) will have to contend with Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins' defense.  The key will be which team will be able to find unsung heroes to step up.  The Grizz's lack of three-point shooting may come into play here.


Fearless Forecast: Thunder take series (4 games to 2)


Los Angeles Lakers (2) vs Dallas Mavericks (3)

      Both teams are happy to be in the second round as they faced spirited opponents in the first, but neither will be happy without a Western Conference Finals berth.  The Mavericks have traditionally faltered in the playoffs because they only relied on Dirk Nowitzki's brilliance, but as they proved me wrong against the Blazers, it was clear that the Mavs play D now.  That D will be tested against the Lakers who have yet to play impressively for a prolonged period of time this year.  The answer to this series will be inside.  If the Mavs can somehow neutralize either Pau Gasol or Andrew Bynum, then the Lakers will not get to defend their title.  That might be too hard for a seven game series though.


Fearless Forecast: Lakers take series (4 games to 2)

Fifty Peso Previews: 2011 NBA Playoffs West

     It was upsets galore on the 2nd day of the NBA playoffs but they did little to change my forecast for the Western Conference.  Check them out below.  For the East preview click here.


San Antonio Spurs (1) vs Memphis Grizzlies (8)

     Usually number 1 seeds are pegged to have an easy time in the first round but the Spurs are bothered by two problems. One, they still don't have Manu Ginobili, although rumors are he'll suit up in game 2. Two, the Grizzlies have given them problems before.  The Grizz have two capable big men in Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph and that means Tim Duncan has to exert effort on defense, which tires him out. In the end though, the experience, defense and discipline of the Spurs together with Memphis lack of depth in the outside shooting department will cause the Spurs to win out.


Fearless Forecast: Spurs take series (4 games to 2)

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Fifty Peso Previews: 2010-11 NBA Southwest Division

Before anything else, I'm inviting everyone to catch me on Lifestyle Network's Clash of the Toque-en Ones Final Showdown on November 30, from 4 to 8 pm at the Rockwell Tent.


The Fifty Peso Previews are heading out West and let's take a look at the Southwest division.  

Dallas Mavericks


Major Additions: Tyson Chandler
Major Subtractions: None


The Mavericks are a veteran, talented team. Yet again.  The problem is, the Mavs have been talented and competitive every year, but never close to winning a title save for their one blown chance against Miami in 2006.  The team will lean again on Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Kidd, but the two vets need massive stepped up play from new addition Chandler, Caron Butler and Shawn Marion and a concerted effort on defense to challenge with the big boys.  From the looks of things, though, it will be a tough grind.


Fearless Forecast: Eliminated in the playoffs (2nd round)

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Fifty Peso Previews: Southwest Division

     Once thought to be the toughest division in the NBA, this season might see the Southwest once again field in 3 teams from their division in the playoffs.

Dallas Mavericks

Last Season: Eliminated in the playoffs (2nd round) by the Denver Nuggets
Key New Additions: Shawn Marion, Drew Gooden, Tim Thomas
Projected Starters: Jason Kidd, Quinton Ross, Shawn Marion, Dirk Nowitzki, Erick Dampier

     Obviously gearing up for what could be Jason Kidd's last hurrah for an NBA title, the Mavericks acquired veterans to shore up the line up.  The additions, however, don't seem to be enough despite what owner Mark Cuban may want to believe.  The Mavs still have no defensive presence they can anchor themselves to, and with Josh Howard and Shawn Marion already battling injuries this early, the Mavs will do well enough to just make the playoffs alone.  Nowitzki's and Kidd's overall brilliance and Jason Terry's hot-shooting will keep the Mavs very dangerous, but as for competing for the title?  Well, Cuban shouldn't bet his house on his own Mavs.

Fearless Forecast: Eliminated in the playoffs (1st round)

Houston Rockets

Last Year: Eliminated in the playoffs (2nd round) by the L.A. Lakers   
Key New Additions: Trevor Ariza, David Andersen, Chase Budinger, Jermaine Taylor
Projected Starters: Aaron Brooks, Trevor Ariza, Shane Battier, Luis Scola, Carl Landry

     What a difference a year makes.  Last season, the Rockets had a line up that featured a "Big Three" and were one win away from a stint in the Western Conference Finals.  Now? None of the "Big Three" will start the season for them and people have all but dismissed them from the playoffs.  With Ron Artest leaving for the Lakers,Yao Ming out for the season with an injury and T-Mac not close to returning, the Rockets will be a testament to Rick Adelman's coaching skills and GM Daryl Morey's theory on picking players by the statistics.  Look for this Rockets team to play solid defense anchored by Battier and scrappy offense courtesy of all their draft picks and free agent signings.  This year will also be a good test for Ariza's capability to carry the load so this season will be quite a discovery year for the Rockets.

Fearless Forecast: Bubble Team (8th seed in playoffs or eliminated in the regular season)

Memphis Grizzlies

Last year: Eliminated in the regular season
Key New Additions: Hasheem Thabeet, Allen Iverson, Zach Randolph
Projected Starters: Mike Conley, O.J. Mayo, Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol

     The Grizzlies seemed to be hellbent on rebuilding (which was a great move on their part) and when they picked Thabeet, the Grizzlies collected for themselves a handful of young and promising talent.  That's why it's such a puzzle that they went ahead and acquired two superstars (albeit troublemakers) this season.  Hiring Iverson and Randolph, both "shoot first, ask questions later" players, doesn't coincide with any rebuilding plans as neither are spring chickens and neither have shown themselves to be great role models or teachers in all their years in the NBA.  While Iverson has been saying all the right things about his new teammates and practice (!), this strange experiment of the Grizzlies will turn out to be one of those "horrible explosion in the lab" types of experiments.

Fearless Forecast: Eliminated in the regular season

New Orleans Hornets

Last Year: Eliminated in the playoffs (1st round) by the Denver Nuggets
Key New Additions: Darren Collison, Darius Songaila, Emeka Okafor
Projected Starters: Chris Paul, Morris Peterson, Julian Wright, David West, Emeka Okafor

     After being the playoff darlings a couple of years ago, the Hornets were utterly disappointing last season.  Sure, injuries played a part in their collapse, but the Hornets have to face the reality of it all.  If they want to compete for championships, they need to find more help for Paul and West.  While trading Okafor for Tyson Chandler was a good start, the Hornets didn't do much else.  The unworldly talent of Chris Paul will keep this team great and if the health of West and Okafor hold up, the Hornets will make the playoffs.  As for competing in the NBA FInals? Owner George Shinn needs to show people the money first.

Fearless Forecast: Eliminated in the playoffs (1st round)

San Antonio Spurs

Last Season: Eliminated in the playoffs (1st Round) by the Dallas Mavericks
Key New Additions: Richard Jefferson, Antonio McDyess, DeJuan Blair
Projected Starters: Tony Parker, Roger Mason, Richard Jefferson, Tim Duncan, Antonio McDyess


Sensing that their "Big Three" of Parker, Ginobili and Duncan still has at least a couple of years together, the Spurs opened up their cash box and brought in some veteran help.  Taking in Jefferson and McDyess plugs the holes in the two positions that they were severely weak in and it also means more possible rest time for Duncan and Ginobili, who broke down health-wise last year.  The question now is whether these guys really do have another of couple of years in them.  The true test for the Spurs will be late in the season if they have their health with them.  If they do, this one could go all the way once again.


Fearless Forecast: At least 2nd round of the playoffs.




photos courtesy of Ball Don't Lie and Getty Images