Fifty Peso Previews NBA 2011-12: Southwest Division

Dallas Mavericks

Major Additions: Lamar Odom, Vince Carter
Major Subtractions: Tyson Chandler, Caron Butler

     The Mavericks couldn't have picked a worse way to begin their title defense by enduring a lockout.  Losing a vital defensive cog in Tyson Chandler, playing veterans in a compacted schedule and incorporating two new key players has left them in disarray.  While the Mavericks have seemed to find some footing, the real key for this team is to survive the regular season and redevelop their camaraderie to make another run at the title.  On paper, the task seems impossible, but then again that was what everyone said last year before Dirk Nowitzki just Dirk Nowitzki'd everyone.

Fearless Forecast: At least 2nd round of the playoffs

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Fifty Peso Previews: 2011 NBA Playoffs (2nd Round)

     The 1st round of the 2011 NBA Playoffs ended early as there were no seven game series, but it was quite an interesting one.  The bad news was several teams didn't do their part and put my forecast percentage at an all time low of 50%. (Damn you Orlando and Portland!!!)  Not to be deterred, here are my forecasts for the 2nd round which kicks off tomorrow.


Chicago Bulls (1) vs Atlanta Hawks (5)

     The Hawks are brimming with confidence right now, but they are lacking as Kirk Hinrich is doubtful for the entire series.  Given that their choices at guard aren't exactly full of lock down defenders, one of the 2 heavy scoring guards (Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford) will have to guard Bulls' superstar Derrick Rose. That does not bode well for the Hawks at all.  Meanwhile the Bulls have their own issues with Carlos Boozer suffering turf toe (I know, right?).  The Bulls played awful defense (by their standards) in the 1st round but expect them to regain their defensive intensity and give the Hawks plenty of trouble.


Fearless Forecast: Bulls take series (4 games to 2)


Boston Celtics (3) vs Miami Heat (2)

      It's finally here. The series everyone has been waiting for is in the 2nd round as I predicted.  The Heat (esp. Lebron) need this win to disprove the growing notion that he can't win.  The problem is he needs Wade to carry the team offensively and Wade has struggled mightily against the Celtics.  All three Heat superstars have to guard one of the Celtics' offensive greats, and that kind of pressure defensively will mean a lot of trouble once they try to play offense. Much has been made about Shaq's absence, but the Heat aren't big either and Glen Davis, Jermaine O'Neal and Nenad Krystic may be more than enough in the middle.


Fearless Forecast: Celtics take series (4 games to 2)


Oklahoma City Thunder (4) vs Memphis Grizzlies (8)

      The battle of teams that were supposed to be good only in the future promises to be an intriguing one.  Each team's strengths offensively are matched by their opponent's defensive strength.  The outside operators of the Thunder (Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant) will find their defensive matches in Tony Allen and Shane Battier, while the Grizz's dominant big men (Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol) will have to contend with Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins' defense.  The key will be which team will be able to find unsung heroes to step up.  The Grizz's lack of three-point shooting may come into play here.


Fearless Forecast: Thunder take series (4 games to 2)


Los Angeles Lakers (2) vs Dallas Mavericks (3)

      Both teams are happy to be in the second round as they faced spirited opponents in the first, but neither will be happy without a Western Conference Finals berth.  The Mavericks have traditionally faltered in the playoffs because they only relied on Dirk Nowitzki's brilliance, but as they proved me wrong against the Blazers, it was clear that the Mavs play D now.  That D will be tested against the Lakers who have yet to play impressively for a prolonged period of time this year.  The answer to this series will be inside.  If the Mavs can somehow neutralize either Pau Gasol or Andrew Bynum, then the Lakers will not get to defend their title.  That might be too hard for a seven game series though.


Fearless Forecast: Lakers take series (4 games to 2)

Fifty Peso Previews: 2011 NBA Playoffs West

     It was upsets galore on the 2nd day of the NBA playoffs but they did little to change my forecast for the Western Conference.  Check them out below.  For the East preview click here.


San Antonio Spurs (1) vs Memphis Grizzlies (8)

     Usually number 1 seeds are pegged to have an easy time in the first round but the Spurs are bothered by two problems. One, they still don't have Manu Ginobili, although rumors are he'll suit up in game 2. Two, the Grizzlies have given them problems before.  The Grizz have two capable big men in Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph and that means Tim Duncan has to exert effort on defense, which tires him out. In the end though, the experience, defense and discipline of the Spurs together with Memphis lack of depth in the outside shooting department will cause the Spurs to win out.


Fearless Forecast: Spurs take series (4 games to 2)

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Fifty Peso Previews: 2010-11 NBA Southwest Division

Before anything else, I'm inviting everyone to catch me on Lifestyle Network's Clash of the Toque-en Ones Final Showdown on November 30, from 4 to 8 pm at the Rockwell Tent.


The Fifty Peso Previews are heading out West and let's take a look at the Southwest division.  

Dallas Mavericks


Major Additions: Tyson Chandler
Major Subtractions: None


The Mavericks are a veteran, talented team. Yet again.  The problem is, the Mavs have been talented and competitive every year, but never close to winning a title save for their one blown chance against Miami in 2006.  The team will lean again on Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Kidd, but the two vets need massive stepped up play from new addition Chandler, Caron Butler and Shawn Marion and a concerted effort on defense to challenge with the big boys.  From the looks of things, though, it will be a tough grind.


Fearless Forecast: Eliminated in the playoffs (2nd round)

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Fifty Peso Previews: Southwest Division

     Once thought to be the toughest division in the NBA, this season might see the Southwest once again field in 3 teams from their division in the playoffs.

Dallas Mavericks

Last Season: Eliminated in the playoffs (2nd round) by the Denver Nuggets
Key New Additions: Shawn Marion, Drew Gooden, Tim Thomas
Projected Starters: Jason Kidd, Quinton Ross, Shawn Marion, Dirk Nowitzki, Erick Dampier

     Obviously gearing up for what could be Jason Kidd's last hurrah for an NBA title, the Mavericks acquired veterans to shore up the line up.  The additions, however, don't seem to be enough despite what owner Mark Cuban may want to believe.  The Mavs still have no defensive presence they can anchor themselves to, and with Josh Howard and Shawn Marion already battling injuries this early, the Mavs will do well enough to just make the playoffs alone.  Nowitzki's and Kidd's overall brilliance and Jason Terry's hot-shooting will keep the Mavs very dangerous, but as for competing for the title?  Well, Cuban shouldn't bet his house on his own Mavs.

Fearless Forecast: Eliminated in the playoffs (1st round)

Houston Rockets

Last Year: Eliminated in the playoffs (2nd round) by the L.A. Lakers   
Key New Additions: Trevor Ariza, David Andersen, Chase Budinger, Jermaine Taylor
Projected Starters: Aaron Brooks, Trevor Ariza, Shane Battier, Luis Scola, Carl Landry

     What a difference a year makes.  Last season, the Rockets had a line up that featured a "Big Three" and were one win away from a stint in the Western Conference Finals.  Now? None of the "Big Three" will start the season for them and people have all but dismissed them from the playoffs.  With Ron Artest leaving for the Lakers,Yao Ming out for the season with an injury and T-Mac not close to returning, the Rockets will be a testament to Rick Adelman's coaching skills and GM Daryl Morey's theory on picking players by the statistics.  Look for this Rockets team to play solid defense anchored by Battier and scrappy offense courtesy of all their draft picks and free agent signings.  This year will also be a good test for Ariza's capability to carry the load so this season will be quite a discovery year for the Rockets.

Fearless Forecast: Bubble Team (8th seed in playoffs or eliminated in the regular season)

Memphis Grizzlies

Last year: Eliminated in the regular season
Key New Additions: Hasheem Thabeet, Allen Iverson, Zach Randolph
Projected Starters: Mike Conley, O.J. Mayo, Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol

     The Grizzlies seemed to be hellbent on rebuilding (which was a great move on their part) and when they picked Thabeet, the Grizzlies collected for themselves a handful of young and promising talent.  That's why it's such a puzzle that they went ahead and acquired two superstars (albeit troublemakers) this season.  Hiring Iverson and Randolph, both "shoot first, ask questions later" players, doesn't coincide with any rebuilding plans as neither are spring chickens and neither have shown themselves to be great role models or teachers in all their years in the NBA.  While Iverson has been saying all the right things about his new teammates and practice (!), this strange experiment of the Grizzlies will turn out to be one of those "horrible explosion in the lab" types of experiments.

Fearless Forecast: Eliminated in the regular season

New Orleans Hornets

Last Year: Eliminated in the playoffs (1st round) by the Denver Nuggets
Key New Additions: Darren Collison, Darius Songaila, Emeka Okafor
Projected Starters: Chris Paul, Morris Peterson, Julian Wright, David West, Emeka Okafor

     After being the playoff darlings a couple of years ago, the Hornets were utterly disappointing last season.  Sure, injuries played a part in their collapse, but the Hornets have to face the reality of it all.  If they want to compete for championships, they need to find more help for Paul and West.  While trading Okafor for Tyson Chandler was a good start, the Hornets didn't do much else.  The unworldly talent of Chris Paul will keep this team great and if the health of West and Okafor hold up, the Hornets will make the playoffs.  As for competing in the NBA FInals? Owner George Shinn needs to show people the money first.

Fearless Forecast: Eliminated in the playoffs (1st round)

San Antonio Spurs

Last Season: Eliminated in the playoffs (1st Round) by the Dallas Mavericks
Key New Additions: Richard Jefferson, Antonio McDyess, DeJuan Blair
Projected Starters: Tony Parker, Roger Mason, Richard Jefferson, Tim Duncan, Antonio McDyess


Sensing that their "Big Three" of Parker, Ginobili and Duncan still has at least a couple of years together, the Spurs opened up their cash box and brought in some veteran help.  Taking in Jefferson and McDyess plugs the holes in the two positions that they were severely weak in and it also means more possible rest time for Duncan and Ginobili, who broke down health-wise last year.  The question now is whether these guys really do have another of couple of years in them.  The true test for the Spurs will be late in the season if they have their health with them.  If they do, this one could go all the way once again.


Fearless Forecast: At least 2nd round of the playoffs.




photos courtesy of Ball Don't Lie and Getty Images