Fifty Peso Previews NBA 2011-12: Northwest Division

Denver Nuggets


Major Additions: None
Major Subtractions: None


     The Nuggets are looking for a drama-free year after the whole Carmelo Anthony trade situation last year.  They have the right line up for it, as there are no clear stars on the team.  The Nuggets have great pieces in Ty Lawson, Andre Miller, Nene and Danilo Gallinari, and they are looking to continue their run and gun ways. That will mean exciting basketball and a slot in the playoffs.  The Nuggets will make the playoffs again, but they do need someone, perhaps Nene (he of the new massive contract) to rise and take the cudgels as the go-to-guy if they want to go deep in the playoffs.


Fearless Forecast: Eliminated in the playoffs (1st round)

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My Favorite Mistake

     In today's society, it seems more premium is placed on noting people's mistakes.  In today's NBA, everyone is waiting constantly for the next team with the next failed experiment.  The problem with this, though, is some mistakes turn out to be delayed strokes of genius.  Just take a look at the final four teams in this year's NBA playoffs.


Senior Moment

     It's amazing how quiet the Dallas Mavericks have been this year.  Even outspoken owner Mark Cuban has been a good little boy.  Perhaps, they long knew what others are only discovering now.  After yet another playoff flameout last year, everyone wanted the Mavs to blow up the veteran line up and rebuild.  They didn't heed the calls and kept the team intact, hoping another year together would see the development of the team.  Many were quick to call that a mistake, yet here they are, in the Western Conference finals after demolishing the defending champions the Los Angeles Lakers.  The extra year together has seen the development of JJ Barea, the resurgence of Shawn Marion and the full maturation of Dirk Nowitzki as a franchise player. With home court advantage against the Thunder, keeping the team intact may make GM Donnie Nelson a legendary executive.


Trade OK'd

      The Oklahoma City Thunder were the envy of the league with it's financial flexibility and very young roster of great players with great attitudes.  Everyone kept talking of the future and how the Thunder would be kings then.  The future couldn't come soon enough, though as GM Sam Presti pulled the trigger on a deal sending Jeff Green and Nenad Krystic to the Boston Celtics for Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson.  He then proceeded to sign Perkins to a long term deal.  Both actions drew wagging fingers from doubters, but they were silenced soon enough.  Perkins, while not putting up great numbers, has been a great locker room presence for the young Thunder, especially during their losses.  Meanwhile, Green's departure opened the door for James Harden and Serge Ibaka to shine, with both players piling up career numbers almost immediately after the trade.  If that big mid season trade was a mistake, more team should make mistakes as the Thunder are a series away from the NBA finals.


Heat Check

      Of course, the biggest mistake this season was Lebron James publicly spurning his hometown Cleveland Cavaliers for the Miami Heat on national TV.  The Heat haters, though, pointed to a different one in castigating the Heat.  The acquisition of the "Big Three" of James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh may have been a coup, but others pointed out that that left the Heat thin in the support department, especially up front.  People said it was a mistake to load up on superstars and that the lack of help will tell on the Heat in the playoffs.  Now, though, critics are slowly biting their tongue.  The Heat have flourished in the playoffs, not just because Wade and James have learned to play off one another, but also Coach Erik Spoelstra has finally gotten though on his team and have them playing choking defense.  While Lebron's PR choices continue to be errors, forming the superstar trio with Bosh and Wade seems to be a good "decision."


Bullish Run

     In the off season, the Bulls were in great shape.  A promising young team, a new defensive-minded head coach and lots of money to get Dwayne Wade, Lebron James or Chris Bosh (or two of three).  Then, amid the pandering and ego stroking of the superstars, the Bulls' stars Derrick Rose and Joachim Noah, made it clear that they could care less if any of the three stars joined them.  People were horrified as their statements meant none of the three would join them.  It was a mistake, they said, as the Bulls were at least two years away from being great.  Fast forward to the playoffs and the Bulls have home court advantage, the league Most Valuable Player in Rose and a vaunted, unforgiving defense.  Rose has become the superstar people thought the Bulls needed to get in the off season, and the supposed weak line up has become one of the NBA's deepest teams.  Now, the people are talking about how the Heat can compete with the Bulls, and not the other way around. 


     
     With my meager 50% success rate in playoff series predictions this year, I won't be blogging any previews.  What I will be doing is checking out which "mistake" turns out to be the most genius of strokes.

photos courtesy of Getty Images

Fifty Peso Previews: 2011 NBA Playoffs (2nd Round)

     The 1st round of the 2011 NBA Playoffs ended early as there were no seven game series, but it was quite an interesting one.  The bad news was several teams didn't do their part and put my forecast percentage at an all time low of 50%. (Damn you Orlando and Portland!!!)  Not to be deterred, here are my forecasts for the 2nd round which kicks off tomorrow.


Chicago Bulls (1) vs Atlanta Hawks (5)

     The Hawks are brimming with confidence right now, but they are lacking as Kirk Hinrich is doubtful for the entire series.  Given that their choices at guard aren't exactly full of lock down defenders, one of the 2 heavy scoring guards (Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford) will have to guard Bulls' superstar Derrick Rose. That does not bode well for the Hawks at all.  Meanwhile the Bulls have their own issues with Carlos Boozer suffering turf toe (I know, right?).  The Bulls played awful defense (by their standards) in the 1st round but expect them to regain their defensive intensity and give the Hawks plenty of trouble.


Fearless Forecast: Bulls take series (4 games to 2)


Boston Celtics (3) vs Miami Heat (2)

      It's finally here. The series everyone has been waiting for is in the 2nd round as I predicted.  The Heat (esp. Lebron) need this win to disprove the growing notion that he can't win.  The problem is he needs Wade to carry the team offensively and Wade has struggled mightily against the Celtics.  All three Heat superstars have to guard one of the Celtics' offensive greats, and that kind of pressure defensively will mean a lot of trouble once they try to play offense. Much has been made about Shaq's absence, but the Heat aren't big either and Glen Davis, Jermaine O'Neal and Nenad Krystic may be more than enough in the middle.


Fearless Forecast: Celtics take series (4 games to 2)


Oklahoma City Thunder (4) vs Memphis Grizzlies (8)

      The battle of teams that were supposed to be good only in the future promises to be an intriguing one.  Each team's strengths offensively are matched by their opponent's defensive strength.  The outside operators of the Thunder (Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant) will find their defensive matches in Tony Allen and Shane Battier, while the Grizz's dominant big men (Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol) will have to contend with Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins' defense.  The key will be which team will be able to find unsung heroes to step up.  The Grizz's lack of three-point shooting may come into play here.


Fearless Forecast: Thunder take series (4 games to 2)


Los Angeles Lakers (2) vs Dallas Mavericks (3)

      Both teams are happy to be in the second round as they faced spirited opponents in the first, but neither will be happy without a Western Conference Finals berth.  The Mavericks have traditionally faltered in the playoffs because they only relied on Dirk Nowitzki's brilliance, but as they proved me wrong against the Blazers, it was clear that the Mavs play D now.  That D will be tested against the Lakers who have yet to play impressively for a prolonged period of time this year.  The answer to this series will be inside.  If the Mavs can somehow neutralize either Pau Gasol or Andrew Bynum, then the Lakers will not get to defend their title.  That might be too hard for a seven game series though.


Fearless Forecast: Lakers take series (4 games to 2)

Fifty Peso Previews: 2011 NBA Playoffs West

     It was upsets galore on the 2nd day of the NBA playoffs but they did little to change my forecast for the Western Conference.  Check them out below.  For the East preview click here.


San Antonio Spurs (1) vs Memphis Grizzlies (8)

     Usually number 1 seeds are pegged to have an easy time in the first round but the Spurs are bothered by two problems. One, they still don't have Manu Ginobili, although rumors are he'll suit up in game 2. Two, the Grizzlies have given them problems before.  The Grizz have two capable big men in Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph and that means Tim Duncan has to exert effort on defense, which tires him out. In the end though, the experience, defense and discipline of the Spurs together with Memphis lack of depth in the outside shooting department will cause the Spurs to win out.


Fearless Forecast: Spurs take series (4 games to 2)

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Fifty Peso Previews: 2010-11 Northwest Division

If you guys missed the 1 hour special of Lifestyle Network's Clash of the Toque-en Ones, there are replays on Dec 24 at 430 pm, dec 25 at 8 am and 1030 pm and dec 26 at 9 pm! Don't miss it!


Yes, I am very late, but I'm finally finishing my NBA Fifty Peso Previews with this post on the Northwest Division.


Denver Nuggets

Major Additions: Al Harrington
Major Subtractions: None


     Usually, great teams don't like to tinker with their line ups too much, but the Nuggets are far from great. Adding Harrington is not enough, and obviously Carmelo Anthony agrees.  Anthony has essentially asked for a trade and expect the Nuggets to make something happen within the year.  With Anthony gone, this will pretty much be a dead year for the Nuggets as the rest of their players like Chauncey Billups, Kenyon Martin and Chris Anderson have been slowed by both age and injuries. The Nuggets will have to rebuild.


Fearless Forecast: Eliminated in the regular season

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Fifty Peso Previews: Half Season Check Up

     Back in October, before the NBA season started, I made my fifty peso previews, making fearless forecasts for the each team's season would go.  As with predictions go, I had my fair share of right and wrongs, so I did a check up.


So Wrong, Shaking the Head is Not Enough


     Some predictions of mine were just so wrong that I winced when I reread them for this article.  Goodness.


New Jersey Nets

     Seeing the talent of this team, I predicted a good season for the Nets despite their rebuilding plans and ownership change.  Instead, the Nets, with an absolutely horrendous 4 win 48 record, is on pace to become history's worst NBA team.  The Nets seem to have a young core of competent talent in Brook Lopez, Devin Harris and Chris Douglas-Roberts, but this season, the Nets have lost several close games, been victims of R-rated blow outs and been a venue for some internal strife as well.  Yikes.




















Washington Wizards

     With their version of the Big Three returning healthy and trading for scorers Randy Foye and Mike Miller, it was but natural to predict the Wizards to return to former playoff glory.  Now with their head-scratching play and gun suspensions, the Wizards have amassed a horrible 17 win and 44 loss record, second worst in the NBA.  The inhabitants of U.S.A.'s capital have once again disappointed and trade talks concerning Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison are swirling around.


See?  Crazy Does Not Reside Here


     Some of my predictions were in line with popular opinion, but some were met with skepticism.  Well, I'm not the "boy who cried wolf," as you can see.


Oklahoma City Thunder

     I foresaw for the Thunder a season of playoff spot hunting where not too many people did.  Many claim the Thunder are too young, too inexperienced to stake a claim for a playoff spot in the tough Western Conference. The young guns of OKC have rewarded my faith in them, carting a 30 win, 21 loss record, good enough for 6th in the playoff seeding chart.  Kevin Durant has become every inch of a franchise player, running a close second to Carmelo Anthony in the NBA scoring race, and Russell Westbrook is fast becoming an elite playmaker, constantly flirting with triple doubles.  Look for the Thunder to keep that spot and make me look good.


Houston Rockets

     Many wrote off the Rockets as Yao Ming went down with injury and Ron Artest left for the Lakers.  I didn't, because I have faith in Daryl Morey and his scientific, by-the-numbers way of picking players.  I predicted the Rockets to fight for a playoff spot , and right now, the Rockets, on cue, are sporting a 27 win, 29 loss record and fighting for a playoff spot.  It's really a joy to watch the Rockets and their brand of smart, scrappy basketball and this season has been quite magical for a team with only one lottery pick (Shane Battier) and 4 late 1st round to second round starters.

Fifty Peso Previews: Northwest Division

     The Northwest Division used to be the "throwaway" division, as it usually had only one or none of its teams make the playoffs.  Last year was sort of a rebirth for the division with the Denver Nuggets going all the way to the Western Conference Finals for the first time in over two decades.  This year, what was once the nerdy kid whose lunch money was taken promises to emerge as the new school bully.

Denver Nuggets


Last Year: Eliminated in the playoffs (Western Conference Finals) by the L.A. Lakers
Key New Additions: Ty Lawson, Arron Afflalo
Projected Starters: Chauncey Billups, Arron Afflalo, Carmelo Anthony, Kenyon Martin, Nene


     The arrival of Billups provoked a change in the once talented but lethargic Nuggets and it tranformed the Nuggets into title contenders that caused the eventual champs Lakers quite a scare.  With the team coming back this year and a further strengthening of their backcourt, the Nuggets are looking to once again challenge for the title.  The ride, though, might not be as smooth as they thought.  Coach George Karl has a tendency to rub off the wrong way on his players after several years and this could be the year that that happens with these Nuggets.  Also, the Nuggets have several very injury-prone players have tremendously healthy years last year that one has to begin to get worried if they could have that kind of a year again.  However, if the Nuggets are blessed with health again and Billups' leadership skills are as hyped, then the Mile High City will be among the NBA's elite cities.


Fearless Forecast: At least 2nd round of the playoffs


Minnesota Timberwolves


Last Year: Failed to make playoffs
Key New Additions: Jonny Flynn, Ramon Sessions, Sasha Pavlovic
Projected Starters: Jonny Flynn, Corey Brewer, Ryan Gomes, Al Jefferson, Mark Blount


     The Timberwolves are a true hard luck case.  New GM David Kahn made all the right moves by shedding salaries, picking well and gathering talent, planning on having a young improving team that could entice big name free agents to take a second look at Minnesota next year.  Then, reality set in.  First pick Ricky Rubio couldn't get a buy out, deciding to play a couple more years in Europe, and promising big man Kevin Love broke his left hand in a pre season game.  It certainly is not a good start for the Wolves this season but they do have some nice pieces in Jefferson, Sessions, Flynn and Gomes.  When Love comes back by December, the Wolves could provide some spirited competition to teams looking to make playoffs.  As for challenging for a playoff spot?  That might have to wait.


Fearless Forecast: Eliminated in the regular season


Oklahoma City Thunder


Last Year: Eliminated in the playoffs
Key New Additions: James Harden, Etan Thomas
Projected Starters: Russell Westbrook, Thabo Sefalosha, Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, Nenad Krystic


     Thunder owner Clay Bennett broke the hearts of the Sonic fans by moving the team to OKC, but he sure is doing right in his new city.  Hiring GM Sam Presti was a stroke of genius as Presti has created a young team with boatloads of talent.  With Durant, Green, Westbrook and now James Harden, look for the Thunder to run a great offense while playing scrappy defense that Coach Scott Brooks will ask for.  While the Thunder still lack a dominant inside force to complement their athletic wingmen, they will give their opponents fits, especially when Durant begins to dominate.  It might be nice to mark your calendars as this could be the year the Thunder make the playoffs for the first time.


Fearless Forecast: Eliminated in the playoffs (1st Round)


Portland Trail Blazers


Last Year: Eliminated in the playoffs (1st Round) by the Houston Rockets
Key New Additions: Andre Miller, Juwan Howard
Projected Starters: Andre Miller, Brandon Roy, Nicolas Batum, LaMarcus Aldridge, Joel Pryzbilla


     GM Kevin Pritchard's hard work is now paying off.  Ridding themselves of the "Jail Blazers" Portland now has a line up of ultra talented players with great attitudes to complement them.  The additions of Miller and Howard were meant to provide the veteran leadership to a team which features the unworldly versatility of Roy, the sweet shooting touch of Aldridge and the power and athleticism of Greg Oden.  If they can all put it together with no major injuries, there is no limit to where the Blazers can go.  The West had better watch out as a new dominant force could emerge and bring Rip City back to life.


Fearless Forecast: At least 2nd round of the playoffs

Utah Jazz


Last Year: Eliminated in the Playoffs (1st Round) by the L.A. Lakers
Key New Additions: Eric Maynor
Projected Starters: Deron Williams, Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver, Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur


     The Jazz have quite a talented line up in their hands this year and the good part is they have played together for quite some time now.  Unfortunately, this team has been plagued by injuries (almost every member of their core group of players have missed significant time) and by continuous speculations of players being traded (especially Boozer).  Utah's success this year will rely on their ability (and luck) to conquer these problems.  If they can, then Hall of Fame Coach Jerry Sloan can and will lead them deep in the playoffs.


Fearless Forecast: Eliminated in the playoffs (1st round)


photos courtesy of Ball Don't Lie and Getty Images