Fifty Peso Previews NBA 2011-12: Southeast Division

Atlanta Hawks

Major Additions: Tracy McGrady, Jerry Stackhouse
Major Subtractions: Jamal Crawford


     The Hawks decided to keep the nucleus of their team, gaining McGrady while losing 6th man Crawford, in the hopes that yet another year of playing together will finally be "it" for this team that has played together for years.  The Hawks, however, are still a team that struggles mightily against good defensive teams.  Unless Josh Smith decides to completely reach his potential and Joe Johnson defies father time, the Hawks may be doomed to yet another loss in the playoffs.


Fearless Forecast: Eliminated in the playoffs (2nd round)

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My Favorite Mistake

     In today's society, it seems more premium is placed on noting people's mistakes.  In today's NBA, everyone is waiting constantly for the next team with the next failed experiment.  The problem with this, though, is some mistakes turn out to be delayed strokes of genius.  Just take a look at the final four teams in this year's NBA playoffs.


Senior Moment

     It's amazing how quiet the Dallas Mavericks have been this year.  Even outspoken owner Mark Cuban has been a good little boy.  Perhaps, they long knew what others are only discovering now.  After yet another playoff flameout last year, everyone wanted the Mavs to blow up the veteran line up and rebuild.  They didn't heed the calls and kept the team intact, hoping another year together would see the development of the team.  Many were quick to call that a mistake, yet here they are, in the Western Conference finals after demolishing the defending champions the Los Angeles Lakers.  The extra year together has seen the development of JJ Barea, the resurgence of Shawn Marion and the full maturation of Dirk Nowitzki as a franchise player. With home court advantage against the Thunder, keeping the team intact may make GM Donnie Nelson a legendary executive.


Trade OK'd

      The Oklahoma City Thunder were the envy of the league with it's financial flexibility and very young roster of great players with great attitudes.  Everyone kept talking of the future and how the Thunder would be kings then.  The future couldn't come soon enough, though as GM Sam Presti pulled the trigger on a deal sending Jeff Green and Nenad Krystic to the Boston Celtics for Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson.  He then proceeded to sign Perkins to a long term deal.  Both actions drew wagging fingers from doubters, but they were silenced soon enough.  Perkins, while not putting up great numbers, has been a great locker room presence for the young Thunder, especially during their losses.  Meanwhile, Green's departure opened the door for James Harden and Serge Ibaka to shine, with both players piling up career numbers almost immediately after the trade.  If that big mid season trade was a mistake, more team should make mistakes as the Thunder are a series away from the NBA finals.


Heat Check

      Of course, the biggest mistake this season was Lebron James publicly spurning his hometown Cleveland Cavaliers for the Miami Heat on national TV.  The Heat haters, though, pointed to a different one in castigating the Heat.  The acquisition of the "Big Three" of James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh may have been a coup, but others pointed out that that left the Heat thin in the support department, especially up front.  People said it was a mistake to load up on superstars and that the lack of help will tell on the Heat in the playoffs.  Now, though, critics are slowly biting their tongue.  The Heat have flourished in the playoffs, not just because Wade and James have learned to play off one another, but also Coach Erik Spoelstra has finally gotten though on his team and have them playing choking defense.  While Lebron's PR choices continue to be errors, forming the superstar trio with Bosh and Wade seems to be a good "decision."


Bullish Run

     In the off season, the Bulls were in great shape.  A promising young team, a new defensive-minded head coach and lots of money to get Dwayne Wade, Lebron James or Chris Bosh (or two of three).  Then, amid the pandering and ego stroking of the superstars, the Bulls' stars Derrick Rose and Joachim Noah, made it clear that they could care less if any of the three stars joined them.  People were horrified as their statements meant none of the three would join them.  It was a mistake, they said, as the Bulls were at least two years away from being great.  Fast forward to the playoffs and the Bulls have home court advantage, the league Most Valuable Player in Rose and a vaunted, unforgiving defense.  Rose has become the superstar people thought the Bulls needed to get in the off season, and the supposed weak line up has become one of the NBA's deepest teams.  Now, the people are talking about how the Heat can compete with the Bulls, and not the other way around. 


     
     With my meager 50% success rate in playoff series predictions this year, I won't be blogging any previews.  What I will be doing is checking out which "mistake" turns out to be the most genius of strokes.

photos courtesy of Getty Images

Fifty Peso Previews: 2011 NBA Playoffs (2nd Round)

     The 1st round of the 2011 NBA Playoffs ended early as there were no seven game series, but it was quite an interesting one.  The bad news was several teams didn't do their part and put my forecast percentage at an all time low of 50%. (Damn you Orlando and Portland!!!)  Not to be deterred, here are my forecasts for the 2nd round which kicks off tomorrow.


Chicago Bulls (1) vs Atlanta Hawks (5)

     The Hawks are brimming with confidence right now, but they are lacking as Kirk Hinrich is doubtful for the entire series.  Given that their choices at guard aren't exactly full of lock down defenders, one of the 2 heavy scoring guards (Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford) will have to guard Bulls' superstar Derrick Rose. That does not bode well for the Hawks at all.  Meanwhile the Bulls have their own issues with Carlos Boozer suffering turf toe (I know, right?).  The Bulls played awful defense (by their standards) in the 1st round but expect them to regain their defensive intensity and give the Hawks plenty of trouble.


Fearless Forecast: Bulls take series (4 games to 2)


Boston Celtics (3) vs Miami Heat (2)

      It's finally here. The series everyone has been waiting for is in the 2nd round as I predicted.  The Heat (esp. Lebron) need this win to disprove the growing notion that he can't win.  The problem is he needs Wade to carry the team offensively and Wade has struggled mightily against the Celtics.  All three Heat superstars have to guard one of the Celtics' offensive greats, and that kind of pressure defensively will mean a lot of trouble once they try to play offense. Much has been made about Shaq's absence, but the Heat aren't big either and Glen Davis, Jermaine O'Neal and Nenad Krystic may be more than enough in the middle.


Fearless Forecast: Celtics take series (4 games to 2)


Oklahoma City Thunder (4) vs Memphis Grizzlies (8)

      The battle of teams that were supposed to be good only in the future promises to be an intriguing one.  Each team's strengths offensively are matched by their opponent's defensive strength.  The outside operators of the Thunder (Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant) will find their defensive matches in Tony Allen and Shane Battier, while the Grizz's dominant big men (Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol) will have to contend with Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins' defense.  The key will be which team will be able to find unsung heroes to step up.  The Grizz's lack of three-point shooting may come into play here.


Fearless Forecast: Thunder take series (4 games to 2)


Los Angeles Lakers (2) vs Dallas Mavericks (3)

      Both teams are happy to be in the second round as they faced spirited opponents in the first, but neither will be happy without a Western Conference Finals berth.  The Mavericks have traditionally faltered in the playoffs because they only relied on Dirk Nowitzki's brilliance, but as they proved me wrong against the Blazers, it was clear that the Mavs play D now.  That D will be tested against the Lakers who have yet to play impressively for a prolonged period of time this year.  The answer to this series will be inside.  If the Mavs can somehow neutralize either Pau Gasol or Andrew Bynum, then the Lakers will not get to defend their title.  That might be too hard for a seven game series though.


Fearless Forecast: Lakers take series (4 games to 2)

Fifty Peso Previews: 2011 NBA Playoffs East

     NBA fans' favorite time has come. It's the start of the NBA playoffs 1 night from tonight and let's weigh in on the first round results starting with the Eastern Conference.

Chicago Bulls (1) vs Indiana Pacers (8)

     Never mind the history of 8th seeds beating the 1st seeds. This series will be won by the Bulls. They are too talented defensively for the Pacers, who I consider one of the teams that defend better only when the shoot great.  The Bulls are playing at too high a level to let the Pacers get their offense going and Derrick Rose is just astounding with his stellar MVP-candidate play.  It will be a tough climb for the Pacers and I can only see them win a game if at all.


Fearless Forecast: Bulls take series (4 games to 1)

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Fifty Peso Previews: 2010-11 NBA Southeast Division

     First of all, many thanks to those who voted and supported me as I competed for Lifestyle Network's CLash of the Toque-en Ones.  I've made it to the top 2 finals and I have one more showdown to win before I realize my 25-year dream of having my own cooking show.


     Now, it's time to continue my long-delayed NBA 2010-11 Season Previews, this time featuring the NBA's Southeast Division. As usual, we're honored to have hitmaker Toto Sorioso providing our teams' theme songs for the year.


Atlanta Hawks 

Major Additions: Josh Powell, Etan Thomas
Major Subtractions: None

Improving every season for the past 5, it would seem the Hawks should go for a title run this season.  Their line up is young and talented and most of the core players have been signed up for the long haul.  Somehow, though, the Hawks won't make it any farther this year.  Their offense remains stagnant at times and one has to remember that both playoff appearances by the Hawks in the past two years ended in ugly, 4-game sweeps.  They need to show added maturity and unselfishness if they don't want to be known as just a good regular season team.  


Fearless Forecast: Eliminated in the playoffs (2nd round)
Toto's Theme Song: GIve Me One Reason (Tracy Chapman)


Charlotte Bobcats

Major Additions: None
Major Subtractions: Raymond Felton


Bobcats fans must be ready to be masochists.  Despite new owner Michael Jordan's proclamations about wanting to win, the Bobcats have not added to their roster which barely made the playoffs for the first time last year.  Then, they went ahead and let starter Raymond Felton go to the Knicks.  It looks to be a tough year for the Bobcats and it will be a struggle yet again to make the playoffs.


Fearless Forecast: Eliminated in the regular season
Toto's Theme Song: Love the Way You Lie (Eminem feat. Rihanna)


Miami Heat

Major Additions: Lebron James, Chris Bosh, Mike Miller
Major Subtractions: Michael Beasley


All talk has been on the Heat and their trio of superstars, with many predicting immediate multiple championships and challenging the Bulls' 72-10 win loss record.  It's been a rough start for Miami and it's not all about needing time to gel.  The Heat are very thin up front and in the playoffs that may be exposed, like the way the Celtics have done, twice already.  The Heat need tougher play underneath or they will come up short.  They will dominate the regular season but they need to handle their business down low if they want to challenge history.


Fearless Forecast: At least Conference semi-finals 
Toto's Theme Song: The Club Can't Handle Me Ryt Now (Flo Rida feat. David Guetta)


Orlando Magic

Major Additions: Chris Duhon
Major Subtractions: None


Orlando had a great record last year but disappointed many by losing to the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals.  Instead of blowing up the team, the Magic decided to give the team one more year together.  Will the added year make them play better?  What the Magic needs is stepped up play from both VInce Carter and Rashard Lewis as Dwight Howard cannot do it alone.  Once those two step up and not disappear like last year, the Magic can go all the way to the Finals once again.


Fearless Forecast: At least Conference Semi Finals
Toto's Theme Song: Magic (B.O.B.)


Washington Wizards

Major Additions: John Wall, Yi Jian Lian, Kirk Hinrich
Major Subtractions: None


What a mess the Wizards were last year.  This year, with a new face to the franchise, the Wizards can probably look forward to a less chaotic year.  Winning, however, will not be as automatic.  Wizards need their mercurial but talented players Gilbert Arenas and Andray Blatche to buy into Coach Flip Saunders' system if they want bring the Wizards to playoff contention, which is definitely easier said than done with these two guys.


Fearless Forecast: Eliminated in the regular season
Toto's Theme Song: Reset (Charice)

Fifty Peso Previews: NBA's Southeast Division

Rounding out the NBA's Eastern Conference is the Southeast Division, home of the defending Eastern Conference Champs, the Orlando Magic.  Are the Magic the only good team in this conference?

Atlanta Hawks

Last Season: Eliminated in the playoffs (2nd round) by the Cleveland Cavaliers
Key New Additions: Jamal Crawford, Joe Smith
Projected Starters: Mike Bibby, Joe Johnson, Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, Al Horford

     The Hawks got a huge monkey off their backs when they got to the playoffs since the Mutombo era two seasons ago.  Since then, the Hawks, despite their ownership woes, seem to want to do better.  Re-signing their vital cogs Smith and Bibby was definitely a sign that the Hawks want to compete this year, and compete they certainly will.  With the addition of the streak shooting Crawford to an already respectable bench, look for the Hawks to be an even better scoring team.  Their biggest chance for success though will depend on their defense and Mike Woodson is all over that.  The question mark will be Josh Smith, since his dynamic defensive abilities to block, steal and rebound (when he wants to) will be the key to making the Hawks a credible defensive team.  If Smith somehow works well with Woodson (with no drama this time), then the Hawks will have a chance to actually be threats in the playoffs, rather than get swept again in the second round.

Fearless Forecast: Eliminated in the playoffs (2nd round)

Charlotte Bobcats

Last Year: Failed to make playoffs
Key New Additions: Tyson Chandler, Flip Murray
Projected Starters: Raymond Felton, Raja Bell, Gerald Wallace, Boris Diaw, Tyson Chandler

Part owner Michael Jordan is as good a basketball executive as he was a baseball player.  His moves have left the Bobcats with an uneven line up over the years, and the trades pulled off last season and over the summer not only failed to correct that, but they also left the Bobcats older and more injury-prone.  Trading the oft-injured Emeka Okafor for an even more oft-injured Tyson Chandler is the final nail on the coffin of the Bobcats' playoff chances. This mish mash of a team may play some good games throughout the season by virtue of versatile stars Wallace and Diaw, but it really doesn't look good for the Bobcats and its coach Larry Brown.  If they do any significant strides towards the playoffs, then Brown deserves a Nobel prize because they are a lost cause.

Fearless Forecast: Eliminated in the regular season.

Miami Heat

Last Season: Eliminated in playoffs (1st round) by the Atlanta Hawks
Key New Additions: Quentin Richardson
Projected Starters: Daequan Cook, Dwayne Wade, Michael Beasley, Udonis Haslem, Jermaine O"Neal

For a team trying to convince Dwayne Wade to stay with them next year, the Miami Heat sure didn't do much.  Acquiring Quentin Richardson doesn't do much to augment the Heat, as their bench continues to be very weak.  Moving Beasley to small forward will help  their starters' offensive sets, but don't be surprised if Wade contends for another scoring title, and the Heat get eliminated from the playoffs.  Filipino American coach Erik Spoelstra must find help for Wade if he wants the Heat anywhere near playoff contention.

Fearless Forecast: Eliminated in the regular season

Orlando Magic

Last Year: Lost in the Finals to the L.A. Lakers
Key New Additions: Vince Carter, Matt Barnes, Jason Williams, Brandon Bass
Projected Starters: Jameer Nelson, Vince Carter, Mikael Pietrus, Brandon Bass (for the 1st 10 games), Dwight Howard

     In what could only be described as an arms race, the Magic responded to the Cavs' and Celtics' improvements by acquiring talent.  Lots of it.  With ownership willing to shed dough, the Magic's revamped line up features a team two deep at every position and trouble for all opponents.  The Magic now possesses more three point shooters, a legitimate power forward (with power), and an end game scorer in Carter.  While the Cavs feel entitled enough to print their finals tickets already, the Magic seem to be the ones destined for another crack at the title.

Fearless Forecast: At least Eastern Conference Finals

Washington Wizards

Last Year: Failed to make playoffs
Key New Additions: Randy Foye, Mike Miller
Projected Starters: Gilbert Arenas, Mike Miller, Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison, Brendan Haywood

     The Wizards, marred by a myriad of injuries, especially on superstar Arenas, have had a miserable last season.  This year, things are looking up for Washington as Arenas is supposedly fully healthy.  To further add flame to their already potentially red-hot offensive trio of Arenas, Butler and Jamison, they have traded for sharp shooter Miller and combo guard Randy Foye.  What makes all this explosive is the hiring of new coach Flip Saunders, one of the league's most innovative offensive coaches.  That's why Wizards fans are optimistic, as this year promises a high scoring playoff year for the Wizards.  Look for the Wizards to reclaim their 5th spot in the playoff race.

Fearless Forecast: Eliminated in Playoffs (2nd round)